FINALLY - Authoritative -- and Believable Economic Good News

A few years ago, economist Alan Beaulieu stood in front of a packed Indianapolis crowd at Butler University and blithely predicted that the whole economic world was going to go to hell in a hand basket. A lot of very intelligent people were in that crowd. Most, like me, didn't do what he said. Way in advance he predicted what we now call the "Great Recession" would be The Perfect Storm. It was going to be exceptionally ugly.

Of course, it was.

At the time, I wrote a Chicago-based business column called the Hoosier Coefficient. So I interviewed Beaulieu and wrote a column about his predictions.

They. All. Came. True.

Every last ugly one of them.

Since I didn't do what he said, the economic maelstrom blew out the windows of my little business. We hung on by our fingernails. When he made his prediction, banks were throwing money at me. When he said that in a few months nobody would be loaning anybody anything, some thought him mad. He said cash would be king, and now I know what that means. I REALLY know what that means. In fact, my business became a little bank, as some client invoices started going 30, 60 and in some cases 180 days, before they were paid.

Just like Beaulieu said they would.

Now, in the past year or so, I -- like you -- have heard it all about our economic "recovery." Off and on, double dip or no double dip. It wakes me up at night and sends me to my knees.
Until now.

Wait for it.

Beaulieu's company, The Institute for Trend Research, has made it OFFICIAL. ITR has a 96% accuracy rate. Here it is:

The year 2012 will be the first real year of expansion and recovery.
The recovery and expansion will continue right through the first half of 2013, and then perhaps get a little bumpy.
ITR says we may have a little bump of a recession beginning in the latter half of 2013, but the economy will pick back up and then expand again from 2015 to 2017.
Now, according to ITR, is the time to market, position and SELL. Time to build up cash reserves, leverage favorable interest rates and GROW.

Did I say that I believe this forecast?

How can I not, especially when he was right down the line, point by excruciatingly painful point, when everyone else was saying "Oh, the housing marketing will rebound, we'll be okay" just a few years ago.

I'm ready to believe. And act!

Crisis Communications and Employees

Of the making of information about managing and enduring crises there is apparently no end, particularly over the last 20-some months. Michael McKinney recently posted 12 tips -- interestedly focused on employees -- that pack a considerable amount of wisdom. They appear below and a worth the 45 seconds required to review. If you want to see the blog column in its entirety, click here.

Understand that we will never get back to normal: While it is comfortable to want to seek the status quo, “normal” in times of a crisis is constantly changing. Leaders need to move on to seek better ways of doing things, letting these new ways become the new normal.
Take care of one another: Listening reduces anxiety. Provide regular updates on what is happening across the organization and expand inclusivity.
React…pause…respond: The right response will be made once information gathering, integrity, an open heart, and seeking to understand have been considered.
Talk—even when you don’t believe there is much to say: Overcommunication is essential during turbulent times. Consistent and continuous messaging prevents rumors from spreading and demonstrates the leaders’ approachability and transparency.
Be visible—now is not the time to play hide-and-seek: People become fearful when the leader goes into hiding. As a leader, be present, inform comfort, and provide strength for others.
Maintain integrity and high value morals: Current circumstances should not influence or distort your definition of integrity and other core values.
Optimize costs, with retention in mind: Make cost optimization decisions keeping employee retention in mind. This allows leaders to assess risk and make more informed decisions.
Be a brand ambassador: The organization needs people who are brand ambassadors. As brand ambassadors, you are responsible for representing the organization both internally and externally in a positive manner. This means you must refrain from making statements that might cause further turbulence.
Assess and rebuild trust: Rebuilding an injured organization requires making difficult decisions that not everyone will understand. For this reason, you and other leaders must continuously asses and rebuild trust.
Remember, leaders are human, too: Though there will be difficult times during a crisis, as leader, it is important to remain composed.
Think like a child: Try to live “in the moment,” not allowing business to consume every moment. Work/life balance can exist, even in a crisis.
Take care of your emotional, physical, and spiritual well-being: Don’t put any aspect of your well-being on hold. While change and uncertainty at work are draining, you cannot allow them to take over your life.