eMarketer: YouTube will decide presidential election
Now that we're nearing the 4th month of the not-so-new year, take a look back at eMarketer's predictions for 2008 and decide for yourself.
Anticipating the recession that we appear to be in, eMarketer made 10 predictions, casting forth possibly the most interesting oracle: YouTube will decide the presidential election.
Here's how they put it: "YouTube attracts the most online traffic and is consistently rated the favorite social media site by US Internet users.
"YouTube will play a decisive role in the 2008 U.S. Presidential election by either airing a user-submitted clip that embarrasses a leading candidate or setting the tone of the campaign through its series of sponsored debates."
YouTube certainly has brought down numerous other public figures (including one notable shock jock) with user-edited and submitted videos. When the election is over some seven months hence, wonder if we'll see new tomes toting how public figures need to have a specific YouTube strategy in achieving their objectives.
In case you're interested, here is a list of eMarketer's complete predictions for online behavior (commentary in parentheses):
1) Online ads remain resilient (and nearly recession proof)
2) Video surge slows. (bandwidth issues - or will people continue to accept garage-level rough-cut production?)
3) Social network advertising hits $1.6 billion (Facebook is now running political ads!)
4) Networking goes beyond MySpace and Facebook (links to mulitple sites and more of the proposed Web 3.0 will start appearing)
5) YouTube decides the election (still waiting on this one)
6) Beijing Olympics pumps up ad spending (the Olympic Torch/Tibey gaffee is playing in here)
7) Buy online, pick-up in-store becomes expected feature (this could be the resurrection of the original virtual shopping pieces that everyone expected back during the dotcom fizzled revolution)
8) Movie downloading hits the mainstream (One of our clients, Smithville, is rolling out Fiber-to-the-Home with fiber speeds up to an astonishing 100 mbps - that's industrial strength broadband - with movie downloads that take like 40 seconds for a two-hour movie; with that kind of connectivity, why would you ever want to burn up $4 gallon gas to drive to Blockbuster?)
9) Music marketers roll out new business models (as the CD continues to die, watch for more advertising-supported Web sites that offer free or subsidized/subscription downloads)
10) Dynamic ads heighten gaming revenue potential (gazillion-dollar product placement and related games for the upcoming Iron Man movie kind of sums this one up)
More and more, it's an online world!